NBA Betting Insights Tuesday 8th April

GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS @ PHOENIX SUNS

Player News

Out: K. Durant

Questionable: N/a 

Market

Opening: -6.5 GSW / 228.5

Current: -9.5 GSW / 227

Recent Form

GSW L10: 7-3 SU / 5-4-1 ATS / 5-5 OU

PHX L10: 4-6 SU / 3-7 ATS / 6-4 OU

Trends

GSW: 18-11-2 ATS after a loss / 15-8 SU as away favourites

PHX: 18-24 SU after a loss / 14-23-1 ATS at home

Analysis

The Warriors head to Phoenix to face the Suns as both teams seek to rebound from recent setbacks. Golden State is coming off a hard-fought and controversial loss to the Houston Rockets—a game in which they were 5-point home favourites. Questionable officiating decisions loomed large in that matchup, and with the Western Conference playoff race tightening, the Warriors are in a critical stretch as they aim to avoid falling into the play-in tournament. The Suns, on the other hand, have continued to slide in the standings, largely due to the absence of star forward Kevin Durant, which has pushed them out of current playoff positioning.

Golden State will be aiming to level the season series, which currently stands at 2-1 in favour of Phoenix. This game marks the final regular-season meeting between the two sides. The most recent matchup took place in early February, where the Suns cruised to a commanding 130-105 victory on the road in San Francisco. However, the Warriors have since made several key adjustments, most notably the addition of Jimmy Butler, who has significantly bolstered their defensive identity. With Durant unavailable this time around, the Warriors appear to be in an ideal bounce-back and revenge scenario.

From a tactical standpoint, the Warriors are expected to hold a substantial edge on the perimeter. Led by the elite shooting prowess of Stephen Curry—the greatest perimeter shooter in league history—Golden State thrives on high-volume three-point attempts. They currently rank 4th in the NBA in made threes per game. Conversely, the Suns have struggled to contain perimeter threats, ranking 27th in opponent three-point shooting percentage. As such, the outcome of this contest is likely to hinge on which team executes more efficiently from beyond the arc.

LOS ANGELES LAKERS @ OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER

Player News

Out: R. Hachimura, M. Kleber, O. Dieng, A. Ducas, A. Mitchell

Questionable: L. Doncic, A. Reaves, L. James, D. Finney-Smith

Market

Opening: -8.5 OKC / 229.5

Current: -14.5 OKC / 226.5

Recent Form

LAL L10: 5-5 SU / 4-5-1 ATS / 6-4 OU

OKC L10: 8-2 SU / 8-2 ATS / 5-5 OU

Trends

LAL: 12-9 ATS as away underdogs / 27-19-1 ATS after a win

OKC: 26-12-2 ATS at home / 33-13-2 ATS on 1 day rest

Analysis

The Thunder welcome the Lakers in the second leg of a double header series, as Oklahoma City seeks revenge for a rare lopsided defeat suffered just days ago at the hands of this same Lakers team. Los Angeles delivered a stunning first-half shooting display, connecting on 15 of 20 attempts from beyond the arc to build an early and insurmountable lead that the Thunder were unable to overcome.

Oklahoma City is expected to approach this matchup with heightened urgency, as they boast the league’s best record in games following a loss—an impressive 12-2 mark. Furthermore, the Lakers' blistering shooting performance appears to be more of an outlier than a trend, particularly when measured against the Thunder’s typically formidable perimeter defense. With the season series currently tied at 1-1, this contest will serve as the decisive final regular-season meeting between these Western Conference foes.

The key tactical battle to monitor will be scoring in the interior. Should the Lakers regress toward the mean in terms of three-point efficiency, both teams will need to rely more heavily on generating offense in the paint. In their previous meeting, the Thunder held a +10 advantage in paint points—an edge they will look to replicate. If Oklahoma City is able to elevate its perimeter shooting while maintaining dominance in the interior, they are likely to gain the upper hand in terms of overall scoring efficiency. The Thunder enter this game as the league’s premier paint defense, allowing just 41.9 points per game in the interior, which further reinforces their advantage in this critical area.