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NBA Betting Insights Tuesday 15th April: Play-In Tournament
Atlanta operates as a high-volume interior scoring team, ranking 3rd in the league in paint points per game. Their offensive system thrives on elite ball movement, with Trae Young playing a pivotal role in generating scoring opportunities inside. However, the Magic counter with one of the most formidable paint defenses in the NBA, allowing just 45.7 points per game in that area—ranking 3rd overall.
by Malachi
ACEPICKS LEANS
ATL +5.5
GSW -7
ATLANTA HAWKS @ ORLANDO MAGIC
Player News
Out: C. Capela, L. Nance
Questionable: N/a
Market
Opening: -5 ORL / 218
Current: -5.5 ORL / 219
Trends
ATL: 23-18 ATS on the road / 18-12 ATS as away underdogs
ORL: 17-11 ATS as home favourites / 29-23 ATS in conference games
Analysis
The Hawks travel to Orlando to face the Magic in the opening game of this year’s Play-In Tournament, featuring a clash between the 7th and 8th seeded teams in the Eastern Conference. The winner of this matchup will secure the official 7th seed for the playoffs, while the loser will face the victor of the 9th vs 10th game for a final opportunity to qualify for the postseason.
Examining the regular season series between these two teams, it ended in a 2-2 split. It’s worth noting that their most recent encounter took place just a few days ago, with both sides opting to rest several key starters. Trae Young has been a standout performer against Orlando this season, averaging 28.3 points per game, and his offensive output will be critical once again tonight.
From an analytical standpoint, Orlando concluded the regular season ranked 2nd in defensive rating, establishing themselves as one of the premier defensive units in the league. In contrast, Atlanta ranked 18th in the same category. On the offensive end, the edge swings to the Hawks, who finished 17th overall, while the Magic struggled significantly, ranking 27th in offensive rating.
The primary matchup to monitor will be in the paint. Atlanta operates as a high-volume interior scoring team, ranking 3rd in the league in paint points per game. Their offensive system thrives on elite ball movement, with Trae Young playing a pivotal role in generating scoring opportunities inside. However, the Magic counter with one of the most formidable paint defenses in the NBA, allowing just 45.7 points per game in that area—ranking 3rd overall. The team that asserts dominance in this key zone is likely to gain the upper hand in what should be a tightly contested matchup.
MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES @ GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS
Player News
Out: N/a
Questionable: N/a
Market
Opening: -7 GSW / 231.5
Current: -7 GSW / 227.5
Trends
MEM: 6-15 SU as away underdogs / 22-29 ATS in conference games
GSW: 20-11 SU as home favourites / 28-23-1 ATS in conference games
Analysis
The Golden State Warriors host the Memphis Grizzlies in San Francisco for the opening Play-In matchup between the four Western Conference teams still battling for a place in this year’s NBA Playoffs. The Warriors had an opportunity to secure the 6th seed in their regular-season finale against the Clippers, but a narrow overtime defeat forced them into the Play-In bracket.
Golden State enters this contest having taken the regular season series 3-1 against the Grizzlies, with this marking the fifth and final meeting between the two sides this year. In their three victories, the Warriors prevailed by an average margin of 7.3 points. Notably, in the most recent clash, Steph Curry delivered one of the standout performances of his illustrious career, erupting for 52 points and knocking down 12 three-pointers.
Defensively, the Warriors concluded the regular season ranked 7th in defensive rating, led by the ever-reliable Draymond Green, who is widely considered the frontrunner for Defensive Player of the Year. The Grizzlies weren’t far behind, finishing 11th in defensive efficiency. On the offensive end, Memphis showed greater consistency, closing the year as the league’s 6th-best offense, while the Warriors trailed in 16th place.
From a matchup standpoint, both teams are expected to lean heavily on perimeter shooting. The Warriors, known for their deep pool of three-point shooters led by Steph Curry, finished the season ranked top 4 in both three-point makes and attempts per game. The Grizzlies, meanwhile, have struggled at defending the perimeter, allowing the 10th-most three-point makes to opponents. Offensively, Memphis was solid from beyond the arc, finishing 13th in three-point percentage and 11th in total makes.
One key to watch will be Golden State’s perimeter defense, which has been a strength all year thanks to their depth of elite wing defenders—including Jimmy Butler. The Warriors ranked 12th in opponent three-point makes allowed and 8th in attempts allowed, setting the stage for a tightly contested battle from deep.