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NBA Betting Insights Wednesday 16th April: Play-In Tournament
Despite that record, the Heat are not a side to be underestimated under head coach Erik Spoelstra, who is widely regarded as one of the premier tacticians in the NBA. Known for his ability to make high-level adjustments in playoff scenarios, Spoelstra will have had the benefit of studying three previous losses to this Bulls team, and we expect Miami to come in with a revised game plan.
by Malachi
ACEPICKS LEANS
MIA +1
MIAMI HEAT @ CHICAGO BULLS
Player News
Out: L. Ball, T. Jones
Questionable: N. Jovic, P. Larsson, K. Love
Market
Opening: -1 CHI / 222
Current: -1 CHI / 220
Trends
MIA: 7-15 SU as away underdogs / 23-29 ATS in conference games
CHI: 18-23 SU at home / 30-21-1 ATS in conference games
Analysis
The Miami Heat travel to Chicago to face the Bulls in a critical 9th vs 10th seed matchup in the Eastern Conference Play-In Tournament. The stakes are high, as the winner of this game will advance to face the Atlanta Hawks for a chance to secure the official 8th seed and a first-round playoff meeting with the Cleveland Cavaliers. The loser, however, will see their season come to an end, with no further opportunities to reach the postseason.
As the 9th seed, the Bulls will benefit from home-court advantage, and that should boost their confidence—especially given their recent dominance over Miami. Chicago swept the regular season series 3-0 against the Heat, including two wins on their home floor. A victory here would complete a perfect four-game record against Miami this season.
Despite that record, the Heat are not a side to be underestimated under head coach Erik Spoelstra, who is widely regarded as one of the premier tacticians in the NBA. Known for his ability to make high-level adjustments in playoff scenarios, Spoelstra will have had the benefit of studying three previous losses to this Bulls team, and we expect Miami to come in with a revised game plan.
A key area of focus for the Heat will be improving their interior defense against a Bulls team that consistently looks to score in the paint. In their most recent meeting just last week, Miami conceded 54 points in the paint—well above their season average of 48.8. Expect the Heat to place emphasis on correcting this discrepancy, aiming to bring that number back in line with their usual defensive standards, which could prove pivotal in determining the outcome of this high-stakes clash.
DALLAS MAVERICKS @ SACRAMENTO KINGS
Player News
Out: M. Monk, J. LaRavia
Questionable: B. Williams
Market
Opening: -5 SAC / 221.5
Current: -4.5 SAC / 214
Trends
DAL: 11-19 SU as away underdogs / 23-27-2 ATS in conference games
SAC: 12-16-3 ATS as home favourites / 21-29-2 ATS in conference games
Analysis
The Sacramento Kings welcome the Dallas Mavericks in a pivotal Western Conference Play-In clash between the 9th and 10th seeded teams. The Kings enter the matchup as clear favourites, with both squads aiming to make a strong postseason statement following late-season stumbles that saw them fall down the standings. The winner of this contest will move on to face the Memphis Grizzlies for a chance to claim the official 8th seed in the Western Conference playoff bracket.
Much like the Bulls in the East, the Kings have already dominated their play-in opponent during the regular season, winning all three meetings against the Mavericks by an average margin of 11.7 points per game. However, there’s important context to consider regarding those previous victories.
Notably, star centre Anthony Davis did not feature in any of those regular-season matchups. His presence fundamentally alters the Mavericks’ profile on both ends of the floor, offering elite rim protection, rebounding prowess, and a reliable interior scoring option. On the flip side, the Kings will be without starting guard Malik Monk, who did contribute in the earlier meetings between these two sides.
The Kings boast the more potent offense according to advanced metrics, finishing the regular season ranked 7th in offensive rating, compared to the Mavericks, who concluded the year 18th in that category. However, the dynamics shift in a playoff-type setting where possessions become more valuable and the pace tends to slow. In such environments, defensive resilience becomes increasingly critical. While both teams finished the season ranked in the bottom 10 for defensive efficiency, it’s worth noting that Dallas’ metrics are somewhat misleading—since acquiring Anthony Davis late in the campaign, their defensive identity has undergone a meaningful transformation.