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Hearts vs Aberdeen: Scottish Cup Preview
Hampden Park plays host to the first Scottish Cup semi-final this Saturday as Heart of Midlothian and Aberdeen battle for a coveted spot in the final of the oldest trophy in football.
by Lentil
Aberdeen had an unbelievable start to their season, only drawing once in their first 16 matches, with the other 15 going The Dons' way. It was however a trip to Hampden in the League Cup Semi-Final that saw the wheels come off Jimmy Thelin's early season form, as Celtic romped an overly expansive Aberdeen side 6-0. This sent Aberdeen reeling, and despite recovering with a 4-1 win over Dundee, they then went on a run of 12 games without tasting victory. They have looked more settled in recent weeks however, and have claimed important points against Dundee United, Rangers, Motherwell and Ross County to cement a comfortable Top 6 position.
Hearts had the typical struggle at the start of seasons for the non-Old Firm Scottish sides who qualify for Europe. They failed to win in any of their first 11 domestic matches and manager Naismith was understandably let go. Neil Critchley arrived and steadied the ship, but couldn't prevent a turgid Hearts side from being dumped out of the Conference League by Moldovan opposition. Since the festive however, Hearts have settled into their status as one of the better teams in the division, edging their games against the smaller and worse sides in the division. They have however continuously failed to get the better of better opposition, and a downturn in form in the last few games before the split has seen the Jambos fail to make the Top 6 despite being the shortest priced team to finish 3rd at the start of the campaign.
Head-To-Head This Season
In their three league encounters this season, Hearts have managed only two points against Aberdeen, scoring 3 goals despite tallying up 4.67 expected goals. Aberdeen edged a 3-2 victory at Pittodrie in October after a late red card for Jorge Grant, with two tight draws in the other two meetings. Hearts have struggled to capitalise on opportunities against the Dons, and this has been a theme when the chips are down this season. Aberdeen have been more clinical in these matchups, highlighting a potential psychological edge heading into the semi-final.
Team News
Aberdeen may see the return of goalkeeper Dimitar Mitov, though his deputy, Ross Doohan, has performed admirably in his absence. Defender Kristers Tobers is nearing training, and Aberdeen will be hopeful of the Latvia captain bolstering the backline. Veteran midfielder Nilsen, center-back Gavin Molloy, and attacking midfielder Jamie McGrath remain sidelined, although Molloy and McGrath have returned to training on Thursday.
Hearts might consider resting right-back Forrester due to a couple of poor performances. His natural replacement, pacey Costa Rican Gerald Taylor, is definitely ruled out however. Defenders Kent, Kingsley, and Halkett have returned from long-term injuries but have yet to make significant impacts as Hearts failed in their mission to secure Top 6.
Stats Watch
- In their last eight league games, Hearts have averaged 1.13 goals per game from 1.49 xG, indicating significant underperformance in front of goal. They've kept just two clean sheets, conceding 1.38 goals per game from 1.13 xG.
- Excluding a heavy loss to Celtic, Aberdeen have been defeated only once in their last ten competitive matches. They've averaged 1.63 goals per game from 1.44 xG and conceded 1.38 goals per game from 1.18 xG in their last eight league fixtures.
- James Penrice (13) and Lawrence Shankland (11) for Hearts lead the big chance creation stats out of non-Old Firm sides in the Scottish Premiership. Topi Keskinen’s 9 big chances created is Aberdeen’s best individual effort.
- Dimitar Mitov ranks 3rd in the Scottish Premiership for goals prevented (3.1) and 3rd on save percentage (71.8%). His return for Aberdeen would be huge for the Dons’ chances.
As both teams prepare for this crucial semi-final, Aberdeen appear to have regained form at a pivotal moment, while Hearts continue to struggle in their crunch matches. The expansive pitch at Hampden may favour Aberdeen's pacey wingers, potentially exposing Hearts' defensive vulnerabilities. With a place in the Scottish Cup final at stake, this encounter promises to be a compelling contest on Saturday afternoon.