Lopes is fun, dangerous early, and better than many initially gave him credit for — he’s big for the division, hits hard, and has slick BJJ — but he’s not on Volk’s level.

Lopes brings an exciting style, but it comes with clear red flags. His cardio has consistently fallen off after 8–10 minutes, and he got badly beaten in his last five-rounder back in 2021 on the regionals. We saw him completely gas in round three against Dan Ige, and that trend isn’t likely to change here against one of the greatest fighters of all time.

Lopes throws everything with power, especially his hooks, and he’s added some leg kicks — but he’s not a polished striker. He struggles with pressure, jabs, and doesn’t have the footwork to keep up with someone like Volk. His defence leaves him wide open, especially when opponents use angles and consistent feints. On the ground, he’s dangerous off his back, but he often concedes minutes chasing low-percentage submissions. He's not a strong wrestler and usually needs chaos to implement his grappling.

Volk, meanwhile, is practically the blueprint of what gives Lopes problems. Constant pressure, volume, jab, leg kicks, elite footwork, and top control. Everything Volk does builds off his jab and leg kicks — and he uses angles and pivots masterfully to stay out of danger while closing distance. His clinch game is superior, and on the ground, he’s shown the ability to neutralise elite BJJ guys (like Ortega and Yair) with control and ground and pound.

Lopes is a danger early on, no doubt — he has about 8 good minutes where he can land something big. But Volk doesn’t back straight up, he rarely gives clean looks, and he’s not someone who Lopes will be able to just walk down and crack. After the first few minutes, the fight becomes all Volkanovski — he controls where it takes place, has a massive cardio edge, and is the clear minute winner with finishing upside on the mat or through attrition.

This line feels like recency bias off the Topuria loss. Expect Volk to remind everyone just how elite he still is.