Slaven Belupo’s overall record of 11 wins, 8 draws and 10 losses may appear average at first glance, but it doesn’t tell the full story. They began the season in poor form, losing 7 of their first 10 matches. However, since then, they’ve been one of the more consistent sides in the league. Across their last 19 league games, Slaven have lost just three times — and all three of those defeats came against the current top three teams in the table. Since the winter break, they’ve played 11 league matches and lost only twice: a narrow 0-1 loss to Dinamo Zagreb in which they received an early red card, and a 1-0 away loss to Hajduk, coming just three days after a draining cup semi-final, with that match narrowly decided through a Hajduk penalty. These sides have already met three times this season, with Slaven unbeaten across all three — two wins in the last two meetings and a 2-2 draw in the first.

Slaven's away form has been excellent. They have won their last three away games, conceding just once, and are unbeaten in five away matches since the winter break (3 wins, 2 draws). In fact, over their last nine away league games, the only team to beat them on the road has been league leaders Rijeka — they haven’t lost an away game to any other side since September. Slaven come into this fixture with a two-day rest advantage, having played on Friday against the bottom team in the league. Lokomotiva Zagreb, meanwhile, played away to Hajduk on Sunday — an approximately eight-hour round trip — which could add to fatigue.

Lokomotiva have picked up just 9 wins from 29 league games this season, and five of those came against the bottom three sides. They also rank second-lowest in the league for home points earned, with just 5 wins, 3 draws and 6 losses at home. Defensively, they’ve been one of the weakest teams in the league — with the worst clean sheet rate (17%), managing only 5 clean sheets in 29 games, and on home turf just 3 clean sheets in 14 home games.

Their defensive vulnerabilities will be further tested in this game by the absence of key defensive midfielder Feta Fetai, who is suspended. Despite being just 19, Fetai has been one of Lokomotiva’s standout performers. He leads the league in successful tackles per 90 (2.4), is top in interceptions per 90 (1.8), and ranks second in blocks per 90 (0.5). He’s started 22 of 29 games, and in the 7 matches he’s missed, Lokomotiva have lost 5 — with their only win and draw coming against 9th-placed Gorica. His absence is a significant blow.

Lokomotiva are winless in their last 4, and although three of those games were against top-three sides, the points dropped have left them in no-man’s land — 8 points clear of bottom of the league, and 16 off the European qualification spots. With little left to play for this season, their motivation may wane.

In contrast, Slaven Belupo remain just 8 points off 3rd-placed Dinamo Zagreb and still have a realistic chance of pushing for Europe with 7 games to play. This game also takes place on a Friday at 16:00 local time, meaning minimal crowd presence. Four of Lokomotiva’s five home wins this season came on weekends (Saturday or Sunday), and the reduced home atmosphere here will likely blunt any edge they typically have at home.

Given Slaven’s current form, road record, rest advantage, motivation edge, and the absence of a key Lokomotiva midfielder Fetai, the opportunity to back Slaven as the underdogs in this encounter has a lot of appeal.

Best odds available at bet365.