Frankfurt host Tottenham in the second-leg of their Europa League quarter-final on Thursday. Spurs will be looking to salvage their disastrous season by going all the way in the Europa League, but a trip to 2022's winners is about as tough as it gets in this year's edition. The North London side are headed into this match without an advantage after a 1-1 draw in the first leg and will have to turn around some poor recent form that has seen them lose five of their last seven knockout stage away games in all UEFA competitions. On top of this, Spurs are on a bleak run of 1W 6L from their last 7 away days in all competitions, with a 4-1 win over relegation-favourites Ipswich their only win in this spell.

Frankfurt will be hoping to repeat their heroics of 2022, when they beat Rangers on penalties to lift the Europa League trophy in Seville. With the final once again in Spain, they will be hoping history rhymes once more and they can head to Bilbao to lift the trophy in May. In the last round, they easily disposed of the best side in the Netherlands this year, thumping Ajax at home in the second leg to take a big 6-2 aggregate win. Frankfurt were very quick out of the blocks in this match, bagging the opener after just 6 minutes and being 2-0 up and on 1.58 xG by the 25th minute. Tottenham could well be dazzled if Frankfurt start this well again given their struggles in recent weeks.

Frankfurt have been exceptional at home in the Europa League this campaign, with their opening 3-3 draw with Plzen the only occasion they haven't won the tie in 90 minutes. They did receive a relatively easy home draw, with the other league phase games coming against Ferencvaros, Slavia and RFS. Over their 5 home matches, they have averaged 2.2 goals per game from an average xG of 1.42. Over their UEL campaign as a whole, including much harder games at Besiktas, Lyon, Roma and Midtjylland, as well as their knockout matches against Ajax and Tottenham, they almost kept pace with these averages. Overall, they are scoring 1.91 goals per game from 1.40 average xG. They have conceded 1.18 goals per game from 1.24 average xG. Over Frankfurt's last 8 domestic matches they have been much shakier at the back however, conceding an average of 1.75 goals and the same amount of xG. They have averaged a huge 2.11 xG but only scored 1.5 goals per game across this spell. Spurs will be hoping these defensive issues are prevalent on Thursday.

With Tottenham heading into Thursday's match in 15th place in the league, Postecoglou knows that his final chance of adding some gloss to a poor campaign is achieving Champions League qualification by lifting the Europa League. Despite much of the injury crisis fading at the end of winter, results haven't picked up as a deep malaise has set in at Spurs. Despite having the third-highest goals scored (60) in the Premier League, Spurs' distribution of these goals has been woeful, as has their joint-sixth-worst goals against (49). Spurs have lost 17 matches despite scoring all of these goals, and have conceded the same amount as Brighton who have only lost 8 games.

Spurs will be banking on their European away defensive stats improving. They have conceded 1.8 goals per UEL away game from an average xG concession of 1.74. They have failed to keep a clean sheet on any of their away days to Ferencvaros, Galatasaray, Rangers, Hoffenheim or Alkmaar. Their last trip to Germany, to face Hoffenheim, saw Spurs escape with a 3-2 victory despite conceding 2.55 xG to their 2.12. With Frankfurt's preference for a fast start in their home matches, it may turn into another game where Spurs have to outscore their opponents.

Looking at UEL trends since 2022, Europa League second-legs see an average of 3.00 goals and 3.06 xG in normal time. This is a big jump from the cagier first legs, which have 2.75 goals from 2.72 xG on average. 50.5% of first legs have seen the Overs land on the mainline, and this jumps to 61.7% for second-legs as the market undervalues the potential for high-scoring second legs. Looking at just quarter-final and semi-finals, 11 of the 18 second-legs have resulted in Overs landing, which is 61% of these matches. For first-legs, just 4 of the 22 have seen the Over land, which is just 18.2%.

We anticipate Frankfurt will come out flying to take advantage of a vulnerable Spurs side, who may end up having to chase the game. This should lead to a much more open game than the first leg, and there looks to be good value backing the Overs line given the porous defence of both sides in recent times and the Europa League trends.

Best odds can be found at Bet365.