With 4 games left to play in Ligue 2, Martigues come into this clash on 28 points with four games left, level with Clermont (who occupy the relegation playoff spot) but behind on goal difference. They face Caen, who sit bottom of the table, seven points below Martigues. While Caen are in a “must-win” situation with limited time to claw back survival and a seven point deficit to make up, this is just as vital a fixture for Martigues, especially considering their final three games are against 5th place Guingamp (away), 2nd place Paris FC (home), and league leaders Lorient (away). Points will be very hard to come by in those fixtures, so avoiding defeat here is imperative.

Martigues’ season-long record of 11 losses might look concerning, but context is key: they lost 7 of their first 10 matches, and only once by more than one goal in their last 14 games since the winter break. That lone defeat came against 3rd-placed Metz last game, where two penalties inflated the 1-4 scoreline. Crucially, Martigues’ poor early-season form was heavily impacted by not being able to play at their home stadium until late January, instead playing over four hours away, which contributed to both fatigue and underperformance.

Of the eight games where Martigues have lost by more than one goal this season, four were in those displaced “home” games, and two came against Metz—meaning you could argue only three were clean losses on this handicap outside of those exceptional circumstances. The reverse fixture against Caen, a 3-0 loss back in October, was one of those away-from-home “home” games and came during Martigues’ poorest stretch of form.

Meanwhile, Caen’s form has been dreadful. In their last 18 league games, they’ve won just once—a narrow 0-1 win over third-bottom Clermont thanks to an 86th-minute goal. They’ve failed to beat the -1.0 handicap in 18 of those 19 games (1 push, 18 losses), and have failed to score in 10 of those 18. Over the season as a whole, they’ve only covered this handicap twice in 30 matches.

Martigues are close to full strength, with only left back Amraoui a potential absentee. Caen, on the other hand, are riddled with key injuries and suspensions. Noé Le Bréton, a key midfielder who’s scored in each of their last two games, is suspended. Right winger Brahimi (22 starts) remains out, as is midfielder Le Bihan (13 starts). Rotation defenders Lecoueche and Thomas are also sidelined, along with roatation striker Coulibaly, who had two goals in his last four appearances.

Given Martigues’ improved form since the break, and Caen’s dismal run alongside numerous key absences, this looks like a significant overreaction in the market to the “must-win” label applied to Caen. Martigues are also playing for survival, and with such a difficult final run of games, they should be highly motivated to get a result here.

Best odds available at bet365.