13 Apr 2025
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Plzen head to Prague to face Bohemians for the second time in 3 days after dumping them out of the Czech cup quarter-finals on Thursday. After clearly being the second best side in Czechia after Slavia for much of the season, Plzen's European success eventually took its toll on the Plzen squad in March as they dropped points to Pardubice and Banik Ostrava amidst intense fixture congestion. Plzen were eventually edged out of the Europa League by Lazio, and have now bounced back after finally getting a stretch longer than a few days without a match. They roared back to form with a 4-2 win at Sparta Prague, before two routine wins over Slovacko and against Bohemians in the cup on Thursday evening.
Bohemians returned strong in February after the long winter break in Czechia, but since the 16th of February, have only managed to get the better of struggling Mlada Boleslav out of the 8 sides Bohemians have faced. They have struggled to create many chances in certain games, and have failed to convert their chances when they have committed more men forward. Bohemians have recorded poor losses to Pardubice and Sigma Olomouc in recent weeks. A 1-1 draw against relegation rivals Teplice preceded the loss to Pardubice and has left Bohemians in a poor position in the league table. Looking at a sample of their 9 league games since the winter break and the cup match against Plzen midweek, Bohemians are scoring just 0.8 goals per game despite an average of 1.34. They have severely underperformed in front of goal and only scored one goal across their two matches against Teplice and Pardubice despite an xG of 4.22. They are conceding at a rate of 1.2 goals per game from 1.49 xG on average. Bohemians have lost 6 of their 7 matches against the current top 4 in the league, with an opening day win over Banik Ostrava the only time they have avoided defeat against the big sides. Plzen have won the last 4 in this match-up by 2 goals.
Plzen had a mixed return after the winter break. They were the sole representatives of Czechia after the league phase of the UEFA competitions, after Sparta, Slavia and Boleslav all got eliminated prior to the knock out rounds. This burden on the squad has resulted in a disappointing loss at Sigma Olomouc, a 0-0 stalemate against a struggling Pardubice and an expected 3-1 loss to league leaders Slavia. They have bounced back strongly from this form however, and will be expecting their 4th straight win here at Bohemians. Looking at the same sample for Plzen of league games since the winter break and the cup match against Bohemians, we can see Plzen are scoring at a rate of 1.75 goals per game from an average xG of 1.33. They are conceding just 0.88 goals per game, and have only given up an average of 1.06 xG per match. In the midweek cup tie, they would likely have secured another clean sheet were it not for a goalkeeper mistake as he fumbled a cross into his own goal.
Bohemians haven't kept a clean sheet for 6 matches in a row now, and are looking incredibly limp going forward. Their inability to create many chances or convert the ones they do create has cost them against much lesser teams than Plzen. CAM Pavel Sulc is sitting on 16 G+A from 28 league matches and scored the decisive goal on Thursday. He will be looking to add to his impressive goal involvement stats as he looks to back up the claim that he is the best midfielder in Czechia. There are no new injury concerns for either side, with both teams missing 4-5 rotation players with long-term injuries.
With the Plzen squad more settled after a couple of free midweeks to recover, we anticipate they will rediscover their strong domestic form and should overpower Bohemians again after defeating them 3-1 on Thursday.
Best odds can be found at NordicBet.
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